Grade 11 → Probability and Statistics → Probability Distributions ↓
Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a fundamental probability distribution in the field of probability and statistics. It is often used to model the number of successes in a given number of independent Bernoulli trials, each of which has the same probability of success. Before getting into its intricacies, let us understand some basic concepts and work on them step-by-step.
Basic terms and concepts
Bernoulli trial
A Bernoulli trial is an experiment or procedure that results in a binary outcome – success or failure. Examples of Bernoulli trials include tossing a coin (where heads can be defined as success and tails as failure) or determining whether or not a light bulb is functional (either it works or it doesn’t).
Independent testing
When trials are independent, the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of another trial. Tossing a coin multiple times, assuming the coin is fair, is an example where each toss does not affect the next.
Chances of success
The probability of success is denoted by "p". For a Bernoulli trial such as a coin toss, if the coin is fair, the probability of getting heads (success) is 0.5.
Number of trials (n)
This represents the total number of Bernoulli trials. If you flip a coin 5 times, n = 5.
Number of successes (k)
This is the imaginary number of successes whose probability we want to calculate. For example, if we want to know the probability of getting heads 3 times when we flip 5 coins, then the value of k would be 3.
Interpretation of binomial distribution
In the binomial distribution, we are interested in finding the probability of getting exactly k successes in n independent Bernoulli trials, each of which has a probability of success p. The binomial distribution formula is given as:
P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
Here, C(n, k)
is a combination formula, also known as "n choose k", and is calculated as follows:
C(n, k) = n! / (k!(n-k)!)
Where:
n!
(n factorial) is the product of all positive integers up to n.k!
(k factorial) is the product of all positive integers up to k.- The factor
(n-k)!
is the factorial of(n-k)
.
Real-world examples
Example 1: Tossing a coin
Suppose you flip a fair coin 4 times. What is the probability that you get heads exactly 2 times?
- Number of trials, n = 4
- Probability of success, p = 0.5
- Number of successes, k = 2
The probability is calculated as follows:
P(X = 2) = C(4, 2) * (0.5)^2 * (1-0.5)^(4-2)
Calculating C(4, 2)
:
C(4, 2) = 4! / (2!(4-2)!) = (4 * 3) / (2 * 1) = 6
Thus,
P(X = 2) = 6 * 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.375
Therefore, the probability of getting heads exactly 2 times when a fair coin is tossed 4 times is 37.5%.
Example 2: Quality control in manufacturing
A factory makes light bulbs with a 2% defect rate. If a quality control inspector picks 10 bulbs at random, what is the probability that exactly 1 bulb is defective?
- Number of trials, n = 10
- Probability of success (faulty), p = 0.02
- Number of successes, k = 1
The probability is calculated as follows:
P(X = 1) = C(10, 1) * (0.02)^1 * (1-0.02)^(10-1)
Calculating C(10, 1)
:
C(10, 1) = 10! / (1!(10-1)!) = 10
Thus,
P(X = 1) = 10 * 0.02 * 0.98^9 ≈ 0.169746
Therefore, there is about a 16.97% chance that exactly 1 out of 10 bulbs will be defective.
Visual representation
To better understand the binomial distribution, consider SVG
graph showing the probability distribution of getting k successes in n trials with different probabilities.
In this graph, the height of each bar represents the probability of getting 0
to 4
successes in 4 attempts, with a probability of 0.5
of success for each attempt.
Properties of binomial distribution
Understanding the fundamental properties of the binomial distribution can deepen your understanding and help you apply it in different scenarios:
Mean and variance
- The mean (average number of successes) for the binomial distribution is given by
μ = n * p
. - The variance (measure of dispersion) for the binomial distribution is given by
σ² = n * p * (1 - p)
.
Symmetry and skewness
The binomial distribution can be symmetric or skewed depending on the value of p:
- If
p = 0.5
, then the distribution is symmetric. - If
p < 0.5
, then the distribution is negatively skewed. - If
p > 0.5
, then the distribution is positively skewed.
Relation to other distributions
The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution, closely related to the normal distribution. As n (the number of trials) becomes very large, the binomial distribution approaches a normal distribution, which is an important aspect of the central limit theorem.
Conclusion
The binomial distribution, as a discrete probability distribution, is highly useful for modeling binary outcomes in many areas, such as quality control, finance, and any scenario involving success/failure in a series of tests. Its explicit formula and straightforward properties make it an important tool in understanding probability and statistical inference.
Although this is just the beginning of exploring the binomial distribution, this basic understanding provides a foundation upon which more complex statistical models can be built. The key is to recognize its applications and understand how fair and equitable evaluation of Bernoulli trials can provide important insights in both scientific research and practical applications.